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"I will remain in this office by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, noting that if the conversation went well, he might welcome us into his official residence for another conversation next year.

For a PM, there's never truly downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before our chat started, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time the discussion, which was far more extended than normal, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year commences, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a reboot. Maybe even just a bit of a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have put him in improved morale than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

But are he and his allies deluding themselves if they believe his fortunes are set to get better?

Leadership Questions

The harsh reality for the PM is that many of his party members are convinced he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would rather gamble and get him out sooner rather than later.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he told me he'd be "evaluated at the poll", insisting nobody would strip his five-year mandate from him – even if the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the struggle of our times and I plan to lead us," he said.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to protest, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But even though he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, should a his MPs challenged him for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He tried to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the voters was understandably eager for things to get better. He tried to persuade me, and the nation, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economic situation would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government put in place during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he wouldn't put a new date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His central message is that this year the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with greater vigour than I've seen from him for a while – calmer, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from various quarters for a bolder approach, with increased political vision, more urgency, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were repeated ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, should he consider a different script?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is hard, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an backlash when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting clear political dangers as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but we "just haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Opponents wanted him to denounce it before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also long been bubbling desire in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's doing that, but his new more concrete pledge to move closer with the European trading bloc – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely elicit protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to reverse the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to integrate into more of the single market will delight a faction on his side of the party, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to